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Predictions – Know How vs. Numbers

In 1954, the psychologist and researcher Paul Meehl published a book with a startling and controversial conclusion.  The book, Clinical vs. Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review...

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Yellow Fever, Folklore, Science and Management

In 1793, the city of Philadelphia was terrorized by an epidemic of Yellow Fever.  The disease ravaged the city, killing about 5,000 people, approximately 10% of the population.  Although the disease...

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Are You a Bigot?

Back in 1971, a controversial comedy, All in the Family, captivated America.  The show featured a blue collar, World War II veteran, Archie Bunker, who was a prototypical bigot.  Set in the social...

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Who Are You Calling Smart?

The concept of intelligence is a powerful social force throughout our lives.  Starting in grade school, it's used as a filter, separating the more capable from the less capable.  Children immediately...

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An Easy Decision

A common characteristic of knowledge based work is the need to deal with complex, novel situations. Frequently, a professional is confronted with a situation that involves assessment, analysis, and...

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Size Does Matter After All

In a recent post, I blogged about the limits of scientific research. I looked at various errors that researchers committed that impacted the accuracy or relevance of studies and experiments. While...

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Is All Research Created Equally?

Professionals are constantly looking to grow intellectually, and learn new ideas to add to their mental toolkit. One of the ways to do this is by reading the current research that is  pertinent to...

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Weak Evidence – Folklore, Pseudoscience and Superstition

Last week, in this blog, I covered the topic of scientific research. In a post, I described the most common forms of research as well as how they differ in terms of the strength of evidence that they...

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“If I Can Imagine It, It Must Be Likely”– The Availability Heurisitic

We live in a world filled with news stories about frightening tragedies and potential risks. In just the past six months, we had a horrifying school shooting and a sickening bombing at a marathon....

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Sticky Decisions – Anchoring and Adjusting

It's the end of a long day of Saturday shopping. You're at the big box appliance store, looking to replace that old refrigerator. After several rounds of negotiating with your salesperson, you relent,...

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